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“中国通胀数据相当准确”(双语)

2011-04-26 23:56[双语阅读] 来源:互联网 评论:0条

  Many people in China and abroad view the country’s official inflation statistics with deep suspicion, arguing that real price rises are much greater than indicated by the government’s published consumer price index.

  中国国内及国外的许多人对其官方通胀统计数据深感怀疑,辩称中国的实际价格涨幅,远远大于政府发布的消费价格指数(CPI)。

  But a comparison with The Economist magazine’s famous Big Mac Index provides proof that official Chinese inflation is actually pretty accurate, according to UBS economist Jonathan Anderson.

  然而,瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森·安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示,若与英国《经济学人》杂志(The Economist)知名的巨无霸汉堡包指数(Big Mac Index)进行比较,就会证明中国官方的通胀数据其实相当准确。

  The Index shows that the average price of a McDonald’s Big Mac hamburger in early 2003 in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was Rmb10.20 and that by the end of 2010 the price had increased to Rmb14.50.

  巨无霸指数显示,2003年初,一个麦当劳(McDonald’s)巨无霸汉堡包在北京、上海和深圳的平均价格为10.20元人民币,而到了2010年底,这一价格已升至14.50元人民币。

  This annual inflation rate of 4.4 per cent over eight years compares with the officially reported rate of 3.1 percent.

  在这8年期间的年度通胀率为4.4%,而官方报告的通胀率为3.1%。

  But that is roughly the same difference between official inflation rates and respective Big Mac Indices in the US, Japan, Europe, Singapore, Poland, Mexico and Hungary – “none economies that tend to raise investor suspicions of pervasive statistical inflation misreporting,” according to Anderson.

  但在美国、日本、欧洲、新加坡、波兰、墨西哥和匈牙利,当地巨无霸指数与官方通胀率也存在相似的差异。安德森表示:“这些经济体都没有引发投资者怀疑,认为当地存在普遍的通胀统计数据误报。”

  He points out that hamburger prices all over the world tend to rise faster than overall CPI because food prices have risen faster in most places.

  他指出,世界各地的汉堡包价格上涨速度,往往快于整体消费价格指数,因为在多数地方,食品价格上涨得更快。

  “In other words, according to the Big Mac index China official price statistics are, well, just as accurate as anyone else’s,” Anderson said.

   “换言之,根据巨无霸汉堡包指数,中国官方的价格统计数据与其它经济体同样准确,”安德森表示。

  He also has an interesting explanation for the perception amongst Chinese citizens and the wider investment community that the government is lying about real price increases for political reasons.

  一些中国公民乃至范围更大的投资界抱有一种看法,认为中国政府出于政治原因,在实际价格涨幅上没讲实话,对此,安德森也有一个耐人寻味的解释。

  He says that when pressed for details of rising prices, many people in China actually reveal that they are upgrading their consumption patterns – moving from sidewalk dumpling stalls to branded restaurant chains, buying Nike trainers instead of fake leather loafers.

  他表示,许多中国人在被追问到涨价细节时,都会透露出他们实际上在提升自己的消费模式——从路边的饺子摊到品牌连锁餐厅,从购买假皮革便鞋到购买耐克(Nike)运动鞋。

  “What these examples have in common, of course, is that they all represent increases in the standard of living; cash outlays may be rising rapidly as a result, but according to international standards, this is not inflation,” Anderson says.

   “这些例子的共同点当然是,它们都代表着生活水平的提高;现金支出也许因此快速增加,但按照国际标准,这不算通胀,”安德森表示。

  Finally, for an example of a country where inflation is very much underestimated by official figures Anderson compares Argentina’s data with the Big Mac Index in that country.

   最后,安德森以阿根廷为例,说明官方数据如何才算大幅低估通胀。他比较了阿根廷通胀数据与该国巨无霸指数。

  Annual burger inflation in Argentina of nearly 18 per cent over the last eight years compares with an official annual rate of 8-9 per cent.

   过去8年间,阿根廷巨无霸汉堡包的年度通胀率达到近18%,而官方年度通胀率为8%-9%。

  “Given this picture, it should come as no surprise that Argentina is the one economy under our coverage where we have long maintained that inflation is officially understated,” Anderson says.

   “有鉴于此,人们不应感到意外的是,在我们研究覆盖的国家中,阿根廷是我们长期认为官方通胀低报的一个经济体,”安德森表示。


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